You've probably already heard that energy bills are going up again in July. Ofgem confirmed it back in May: the price cap is rising 13.5% — from £1,641 to £1,862 a year for a typical household on direct debit. That's an extra £18-odd a month landing in your lap on 1 July.
What you might not have heard is this: Martin Lewis at MoneySavingExpert called the July rise "voluntary" for most people. And he's right — because there are fixed tariffs available right now that sit below the incoming July cap. If you act before 1 July, you don't have to pay that rise at all.
That's the angle I want to dig into here, because I think a lot of people are just going to sit there and absorb it without realising they had a choice.
Why Bills Are Going Up Again
The short version: the Middle East conflict that escalated earlier this year sent wholesale gas prices sharply higher. According to CNBC, gas prices on the wholesale market roughly doubled in early March 2026 in response to the conflict, and while they've come back down from the peak, they're still well above where they were through much of 2025.
That matters because Ofgem sets the price cap quarterly based on wholesale gas and electricity costs. And crucially, the rises aren't evenly split between gas and electricity — gas unit rates are rising by 24% in July (to 7.3p/kWh), while electricity is only going up around 5% (to 26.1p/kWh). If you're mostly heating with gas, you'll feel this more than someone who's already made the switch to a heat pump.
For context: these prices, as painful as they are, are still well below the 2022 energy crisis peak when the government stepped in and capped bills at £2,500. But that doesn't make an extra £221 a year any easier to absorb.
The "Voluntary" Part
Here's the thing that makes this moment different from most price cap rises: the energy market has produced fixed tariffs that currently undercut the July cap.
According to MoneySavingExpert, if you lock in a fix at around or just below the current cap (£1,641), then from 1 July that same fix will automatically be roughly 15% cheaper than the cap. You haven't done anything clever — you just stopped doing nothing.
As of June 2026, some of the more competitive 12-month deals on the market include:
E.ON Next Fixed — around £1,602/yr (roughly £260 below the July cap)
So Energy 18-month fix — around £1,612/yr
Outfox the Market 18-month fix — around £1,624/yr
Octopus — around £1,632/yr
These figures are from EnergyPlus's comparison data and will change — always check for the latest rates before acting. But the pattern is clear: you can lock in for less than the incoming cap if you move before 1 July.
Important caveat: a lot of comparison sites don't show you the cheapest deals, because those deals don't pay them referral commissions. Martin Lewis specifically pointed this out — look for a "show all tariffs" button and make sure you're seeing the full picture, not just the ones that earn the comparison site money.
What to Watch Out For
Not all fixes are worth taking. A few things to keep in mind:
Stick to 12-month fixes — the October 2026 cap is forecast to rise again (more on that below), but energy forecasts are notoriously uncertain. Locking in for two years when nobody knows where prices go after that is a gamble.
Check the exit fees — some tariffs hit you with penalties if you leave early. Which? recommends avoiding these. Look for no-exit-fee deals if flexibility matters to you.
Don't fix just for the sake of it — if the cheapest fix available is already at or above the July cap level, there's less to gain. The maths only really works right now because several fixes sit meaningfully below £1,862.
The October Problem
Here's an awkward wrinkle: the July rise might not be the last one this year.
Energy analysts at Cornwall Insight are forecasting the October 2026 price cap to rise a further 2%, to around £1,899. EDF has put their estimate at £1,903 and British Gas at £1,920. These are early forecasts and things could shift, but the direction of travel — driven by continued geopolitical uncertainty around gas markets — doesn't look great.
If you lock in a 12-month fix now, you're insulated from both the July and October rises. That starts to look quite attractive if the October forecast is anywhere near accurate.
The 40% Who Already Sorted This
Worth knowing: Ofgem confirmed that 40% of energy accounts — that's about 22 million — are already on fixed tariffs and are entirely unaffected by the July rise. They made a decision at some point to stop sitting on the default tariff and it's now paying off.
The other 60% of us are about to hand over an extra £221 a year unless we do something about it in the next few days.
I'll be honest — I've been one of those people who's let this slide before. It's easy to assume the energy market is too complicated, or that switching is a hassle, or that you'll get round to it and then just... don't. But this is one of those moments where the numbers genuinely make it worth fifteen minutes on an energy comparison site before July rolls around.
Final Thoughts
The July energy price cap rise — 13.5% to £1,862/yr — is driven by wholesale gas prices spiking due to the Middle East conflict
Gas is rising 24%, electricity just 5%, so gas-heated homes feel it most
Fixed tariffs exist right now that sit below both the current and incoming cap — E.ON Next, So Energy, Outfox, and Octopus all have competitive 12-month deals
Martin Lewis has called the July rise "voluntary" — you can avoid it by fixing before 1 July
October is forecast to bring another small rise, making the case for locking in now even stronger
Always check for "show all tariffs" on comparison sites and avoid long contracts or high exit fees
This article is here to give you some information and is for educational purposes only. It is not meant to give you financial advice. It is always a good idea to chat with a financial adviser who knows you well and can help you make the best decisions for your situation.
Sources
https://www.ofgem.gov.uk/press-release/energy-price-cap-will-rise-13-july
https://www.ofgem.gov.uk/news/changes-energy-price-cap-between-1-july-and-30-september-2026
https://www.moneysavingexpert.com/news/2026/05/martin-lewis-energy-price-cap-rise-july/
https://www.energyplus.co.uk/costsavingadvice/best-fixed-rate-energy-tariff
https://www.cnbc.com/2026/05/27/uk-energy-bills-price-cap-ofgem-iran-war-oil-shock.html
